Here is an interesting alternative to Peter Franchese's viewpoint, from the 1/25/07 Nashua Telegraph:
Local leaders examine age old question
By ASHLEY SMITH, Telegraph Staff asmith@nashuatelegraph.com
Published: Thursday, Jan. 25, 2007
NASHUA – Despite reports that New Hampshire is losing young people in droves, one researcher believes doom and gloom predictions about an aging population and fewer young workers have been overstated.
The population is getting older, but not because young professionals and families are moving out of state, Brian Gottlob of Dover-based PolEconResearch said Wednesday at the Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce annual luncheon.
And while the median age of New Hampshire’s population has grown significantly compared to the United States in the last 15 years, that trend is not expected to accelerate, Gottlob said. “We are far from the oldest state in the nation,” Gottlob said. “We’re not going to be so old that there’s nobody left to work.”
Gottlob was one of three panelists who made predictions about New Hampshire’s economy for 2007 and beyond.
Nancy C. Kyle, president of the Retail Merchants Association of New Hampshire, forecasted continued retail growth and fewer company mergers, while Stephen Allen of New England Energy Alliance predicted an increase in electricity’s price and demand.
Gottlob was the last to speak, analyzing statistics on New Hampshire’s aging population.
New Hampshire’s older population is partially due to the low fertility rate, Gottlob said. Young women tend to have fewer children because they’re educated and career-minded, he said.
With fewer kids to balance out a growing senior population, the median age goes up, Gottlob said.
“We’re still very significantly below the U.S, and we will continue to be,” Gottlob said.
New Hampshire has the third lowest fertility rate in the nation for 15-to-44-year-old women, ahead of Maine and Vermont, he said. Utah has the highest fertility rate.
As for the argument that New Hampshire is losing young families, Gottlob said that’s not so.
The 30-to-39-year-old population declined from 2000-05, but not because those people have moved out of state, he said. The decline was due to aging – in other words, some of those people entered their 40s and there were fewer young people to fill the gap.
Gottlob admitted that New Hampshire does face challenges when it comes to demographics, but the state is better positioned to cope than its neighbors.
New Hampshire’s older population healthier, wealthier and working longer, he said.
As the population ages, labor shortages will not be as severe as some have predicted, according to Gottlob.
Many occupations held by baby boomers are facing decline and will replace fewer retired workers, while dependency on foreign-born talent will increase, he said.
1 Comments:
Here is an interesting alternative to Peter Franchese's viewpoint, from the 1/25/07 Nashua Telegraph:
Local leaders examine age old question
By ASHLEY SMITH, Telegraph Staff
asmith@nashuatelegraph.com
Published: Thursday, Jan. 25, 2007
NASHUA – Despite reports that New Hampshire is losing young people in droves, one researcher believes doom and gloom predictions about an aging population and fewer young workers have been overstated.
The population is getting older, but not because young professionals and families are moving out of state, Brian Gottlob of Dover-based PolEconResearch said Wednesday at the Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce annual luncheon.
And while the median age of New Hampshire’s population has grown significantly compared to the United States in the last 15 years, that trend is not expected to accelerate, Gottlob said. “We are far from the oldest state in the nation,” Gottlob said. “We’re not going to be so old that there’s nobody left to work.”
Gottlob was one of three panelists who made predictions about New Hampshire’s economy for 2007 and beyond.
Nancy C. Kyle, president of the Retail Merchants Association of New Hampshire, forecasted continued retail growth and fewer company mergers, while Stephen Allen of New England Energy Alliance predicted an increase in electricity’s price and demand.
Gottlob was the last to speak, analyzing statistics on New Hampshire’s aging population.
New Hampshire’s older population is partially due to the low fertility rate, Gottlob said. Young women tend to have fewer children because they’re educated and career-minded, he said.
With fewer kids to balance out a growing senior population, the median age goes up, Gottlob said.
“We’re still very significantly below the U.S, and we will continue to be,” Gottlob said.
New Hampshire has the third lowest fertility rate in the nation for 15-to-44-year-old women, ahead of Maine and Vermont, he said. Utah has the highest fertility rate.
As for the argument that New Hampshire is losing young families, Gottlob said that’s not so.
The 30-to-39-year-old population declined from 2000-05, but not because those people have moved out of state, he said. The decline was due to aging – in other words, some of those people entered their 40s and there were fewer young people to fill the gap.
Gottlob admitted that New Hampshire does face challenges when it comes to demographics, but the state is better positioned to cope than its neighbors.
New Hampshire’s older population healthier, wealthier and working longer, he said.
As the population ages, labor shortages will not be as severe as some have predicted, according to Gottlob.
Many occupations held by baby boomers are facing decline and will replace fewer retired workers, while dependency on foreign-born talent will increase, he said.
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